• 0.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.2/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (74 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.