• 2.9 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 92/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 3.2 there (41 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.