• 7.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 200.3/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 8.8 there (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 9.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.