• 1.0 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.2/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 1.8 there (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Finals Week 1: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.