• 3.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 35.2/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −1.5 at this ground — averages 2.3 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.