• 4.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.2 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 152.3/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 4.3 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.