• 9.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.3 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.1
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 203.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +2.6 at this ground — averages 11.8 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 15.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.