• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 57.5/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 1.4 there (77 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.