• 6.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.7
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 92/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 6.7 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.