• 7.1 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 207.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.0 at this ground — averages 7.1 there (12 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.