• 4.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.4
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 53.8/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 5.1 there (83 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.0 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.