• 7.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.4 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.7
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 200.3/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.8 at this ground — averages 9.4 there (23 gm)
• vs them: averages 10.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.