• 4.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.4 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.0
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 160.7/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 3.9 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.