• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 38.8/game vs a 35.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.