• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 36.6/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 1.1 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.