• 2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.1 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.9
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 50.3/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 2.1 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.