• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 16.4/game vs a 12.2 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.