• 7.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.6
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 5.8 there (65 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.5 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.