• 1.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.4
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 15.6/game vs a 12.8 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (18 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 12 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.