• 6.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.9
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 32.7/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −2.4 at this ground — averages 3.6 there (74 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.2 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.