• 3.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.5 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.0
• +1.0 opponent leak — they concede 117.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +2.0 at this ground — averages 5.7 there (15 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.8 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 24: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.