• 1.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 50.6/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +1.1 at this ground — averages 2.8 there (13 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.