• 1.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 59.5/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 2.3 there (37 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.