• 2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 57.5/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (50 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.2 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.