• 23.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 22.6 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.0
• −0.6 opponent leak — they concede 207.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −4.4 at this ground — averages 19.2 there (58 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 39 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.