• 7.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.7 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.9
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 203.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 8.2 there (53 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.