• 3.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 164.6/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 3.3 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.