• 2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.8/game vs a 12.8 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 1.6 there (70 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.