• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.1/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +1.3 at this ground — averages 2 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.