• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.6 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.1
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 80.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +0.7 wet forecast — averages 5.5 in the wet (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.