• 8.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 209.4/game vs a 213.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +1.4 wet forecast — averages 9.5 in the wet (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 12.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.