• 3.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.5 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.7
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 209.4/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 3.5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.