• 3.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.3 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.3
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 80.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.