• 4.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 34.1/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 4.8 there (43 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.