• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 49/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 1.3 there (67 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.1 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.