• 4.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 100.5/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 4.1 there (84 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.