• 5.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 35.4/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 5.3 there (39 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.