• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 64.2/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 2.6 there (45 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.