• 9.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.0 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.4
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 203.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −1.1 at this ground — averages 8.1 there (45 gm)
• vs them: averages 10.5 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.