• 5.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.0 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.9
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 60.4/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −1.4 at this ground — averages 4 there (40 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.