• 7.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.4 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.0
• +0.4 opponent leak — they concede 164/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (8 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.