• 8.8 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.7 opponent leak — they concede 230.1/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +3.3 at this ground — averages 12.1 there (34 gm)
• vs them: averages 14.2 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 23: 22 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.