• 2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.7 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 55.5/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 2.5 there (28 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.