• 1.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.2 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 11.8/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.