• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 6.8/game vs a 9.4 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (16 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.