• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.8
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 88/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 4.2 there (27 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.