• 2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 33.1/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −1.3 at this ground — averages 1 there (54 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.