• 2.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 53.5/game vs a 56.6 league average
• vs them: averages 1.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.