• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 11.7/game vs a 12.8 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (33 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.