• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 104/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 1.5 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.